Markets
Radar
Trade
Watchlist
Me
SYSTEM_STATUS: STANDBY
MODE: TIER2
TASK_ID: NULL
TARGET ALPHA
v4.5.0-RC2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
←
RETURN_TO_MARKET
INITIATE_SEQUENCE
Probability
--%
Confidence
--%
EV @ ENTRY
--
Kelly Size
--%
Execution Timeline
Liquidity Surface & Microstructure
WAITING
Capture a high-fidelity L2 snapshot to analyze order book depth and slippage zones.
Decomposition & Strategy
WAITING
Initialize research vectors and bind safety constraints for the agent swarm.
Microstructure Analysis
WAITING
Calculate implied probability from VWAP and spread dynamics.
Market Context Ingestion
WAITING
Load market title, rules, category, and time horizon for forecasting prompts.
Information Retrieval Strategy
WAITING
Decompose the claim into verifyable sub-questions and generate search vectors.
Multi-Source Signal Extraction
WAITING
Triage high-signal sources using semantic similarity and recency weighting.
Vector Similarity Search
WAITING
Project current event into historical embedding space to find base-rate priors.
Sentiment Modeling
WAITING
Extract crowd vs smart-money sentiment and narrative drivers (search-augmented).
Adversarial Dialectic
WAITING
Simulate a debate between Bull and Bear agents to surface hidden risks.
Bayesian Confidence Assessment
WAITING
Synthesize evidence and arguments into a final verdict.
Probabilistic Calibration
WAITING
Apply Platt scaling and optimize Kelly criteria for risk-adjusted sizing.
Synthesis & Report Generation
WAITING
Finalize glass-box report and generate shareable artifacts.
